UK’s mass migration surge challenges Boris Johnson’s original immigration promises

Six years after Boris Johnson’s pledge to implement a simple, fair points-based system, the UK faces its largest migration influx in history, prompting calls to reconsider current policies amid economic and social pressures.

When Boris Johnson assumed office in 2019, he promised to fulfil the key pledge of the Vote Leave campaign to ‘take back control’ of Britain’s borders through an Australian-style points-based immigration system. This model, he stated during his leadership campaign, was intended to be simple, fair, and centred on contribution, targeting reduced low-skilled immigration while favouring high-skilled workers such as scientists. The Conservative manifesto echoed this commitment, explicitly promising fewer low-skilled migrants and an overall reduction in immigration numbers.

However, six years later, the reality starkly contrasts with those assurances. Between 2022 and 2024, more than three million migrants arrived in the UK—a figure larger than the combined populations of Birmingham and Manchester—marking what many see as the largest influx in British history. Official statistics confirm continued high arrivals, with the Home Office reporting around 134.8 million arrivals in the year ending June 2025, of which 56% were British nationals. Among non-British arrivals, the majority were short-term visitors, followed by smaller groups arriving for work, study, family, and humanitarian reasons. Despite a slight fall in net migration to 685,000 in 2023 from a record 764,000 in 2022, migration remains a significant political issue, with both major parties promising reductions ahead of forthcoming elections.

The consequences of this surge are deeply felt across multiple fronts. One critical issue highlighted by Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is the system of Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR), which permits migrants here on five-year visas—and their dependants—to access social housing, NHS care, benefits, and state pensions indefinitely. Children born in the UK to parents with ILR automatically gain citizenship. Think tanks such as the Centre for Policy Studies estimate that over 800,000 migrants from recent years could apply for ILR when their visas expire, potentially burdening the public purse with costs estimated at £234 billion over their lifetimes, equivalent to roughly £8,200 for every UK household.

Beyond fiscal concerns, the impact on British workers, particularly young graduates and non-graduates entering the labour market, is acute. Universities now host some 750,000 international students—equivalent in number to the entire population of Leeds—who pay higher fees and increasingly remain in the country after graduation. Policy changes have allowed non-British students to work for at least two years post-study, with PhD graduates allowed three years, policies that facilitated a significant rise in students switching to work visas. In 2024, around 40% of those moving from study visas to skilled worker visas ended up in care work, a profession often not requiring the high skills heralded by the points-based system. This student-to-care-worker pathway has been cited as a ‘back door’ into the UK labour market, blurring the distinction between high and low-skilled migration.

Labour’s Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves recently advocated for a youth mobility scheme, similar to one operated by the European Union, aimed at easing entry for young foreign workers to stimulate economic growth. Critics warn this would swell competition in an already strained job market and suppress wages further, as youth unemployment runs high in many European countries from which migrants would come. Official statistics show that youth joblessness in Spain, for example, stands at a staggering 27%. The Centre for Cities think-tank also notes that British wages have stagnated or declined since 2008, with many graduate jobs paying minimum wage or marginally above despite graduates commencing work with an average debt of £53,000.

Labour’s plans to relax the Global Talent visa—originally intended for elite innovators—have also attracted scrutiny. The programme has come under fire owing to questionable approvals, such as a transgender Turkish drag performer found soliciting escort services soon after arrival. Critics argue that reducing the visa application fee would only encourage firms to import cheap labour rather than investing in local talent development, further jeopardising UK workers’ prospects.

In contrast to the UK’s approach, the United States under former President Donald Trump took a markedly different stance by raising the cost of its H-1B skilled worker visa to nearly $100,000 per employee. This policy was designed to incentivise employers to hire domestically rather than depend on imported labour, signalling a prioritisation of national workers over immigrants.

Meanwhile, migration pressures continue at the borders. Although crossings of the English Channel dropped by over a third in 2023 to around 30,000—still the second highest recorded since 2018—Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has made tackling illegal migration a key priority, combining stricter laws with efforts to expedite asylum processing to handle the backlog.

Both Conservative and Labour governments face the ongoing challenge of managing migration while balancing labour market demands, public services, and social cohesion. However, critics argue that instead of addressing these needs adequately, the current political leadership has perpetuated a failed economic model dependent on mass migration and low wages. Calls from Reform UK and other voices to scrap Indefinite Leave to Remain, dramatically increase visa costs, restrict immigration, and invest more substantially in British workers underscore the urgency felt by many in the electorate.

Young Britons, burdened by high educational debts and declining job prospects, increasingly view mass migration policies as a betrayal of their hopes and hard work. They seek a government that honours its border promises, values their contribution, and prioritises their futures over being part of a globalised labour market’s disposable workforce.

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Source: Noah Wire Services

Noah Fact Check Pro

The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.

Freshness check

Score:
8

Notes:
The narrative presents recent statistics and policy discussions, indicating a high level of freshness. However, some references to past events and policies may suggest partial recycling of older content. The Centre for Policy Studies’ report on Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) was published in February 2025, with a clarification issued in September 2025. ([cps.org.uk](https://cps.org.uk/media/post/2025/recent-migration-wave-may-cost-country-billions-warns-cps/?utm_source=openai))

Quotes check

Score:
7

Notes:
The narrative includes direct quotes from various individuals. The earliest known usage of the quote from Reform UK leader Nigel Farage regarding the ILR system is from August 2022. ([gbnews.com](https://www.gbnews.com/news/nigel-farage-slams-boris-johnsons-australian-style-immigration-system-pledge-theyve-failed/346675?utm_source=openai)) The quote from the Centre for Policy Studies’ report on ILR was published in February 2025. ([cps.org.uk](https://cps.org.uk/media/post/2025/recent-migration-wave-may-cost-country-billions-warns-cps/?utm_source=openai)) The quote from Labour’s Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves advocating for a youth mobility scheme is from December 2024. ([theguardian.com](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/08/boris-johnson-lying-over-immigration-jonathan-ashworth?utm_source=openai))

Source reliability

Score:
6

Notes:
The narrative references multiple sources, including the Centre for Policy Studies, Reform UK, and Labour’s Shadow Chancellor. The Centre for Policy Studies is a reputable think tank, but the report on ILR has been subject to clarification due to fiscal data disputes. ([cps.org.uk](https://cps.org.uk/media/post/2025/centre-for-policy-studies-issues-clarification-on-indefinite-leave-to-remain-statistics/?utm_source=openai)) Reform UK is a political party with a limited track record, and Labour’s Shadow Chancellor is a political figure whose statements may be subject to political bias.

Plausability check

Score:
7

Notes:
The narrative presents claims about migration statistics and policy impacts. The claim that over 800,000 migrants from recent years could apply for ILR is based on the Centre for Policy Studies’ report, which has been subject to clarification due to fiscal data disputes. ([cps.org.uk](https://cps.org.uk/media/post/2025/centre-for-policy-studies-issues-clarification-on-indefinite-leave-to-remain-statistics/?utm_source=openai)) The assertion that British wages have stagnated or declined since 2008 is supported by data from the Centre for Cities think-tank. ([gbnews.com](https://www.gbnews.com/news/nigel-farage-slams-boris-johnsons-australian-style-immigration-system-pledge-theyve-failed/346675?utm_source=openai)) The claim that youth unemployment in Spain stands at 27% is supported by official statistics. ([gbnews.com](https://www.gbnews.com/news/nigel-farage-slams-boris-johnsons-australian-style-immigration-system-pledge-theyve-failed/346675?utm_source=openai))

Overall assessment

Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): OPEN

Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM

Summary:
The narrative presents a mix of recent data and policy discussions, with some references to past events. While the Centre for Policy Studies’ report on ILR has been subject to clarification due to fiscal data disputes, other claims are supported by reputable sources. The inclusion of direct quotes from various individuals adds credibility, but the overall assessment remains open due to the mixed nature of the sources and the need for further verification of some claims.