Khan accused of cherry-picking Met stats as omitted figures show rises in gun crime and shoplifting

Sadiq Khan’s post on X highlighted falls in knife crime, burglary and robbery but omitted recent rises in gun crime, rape and shoplifting, prompting accusations that the mayor is framing data to suit a funding narrative. Campaigners, researchers and policing leaders say the row underlines the need for transparent, comparable crime reporting and sustained investment to lock in fragile gains.

London’s mayor has found himself at the centre of a fresh row over how crime data is presented after he posted selective police figures that, critics say, give an incomplete picture of public safety in the capital. In a post on X Mr Sadiq Khan highlighted falls in several offence types — noting reductions in knife crime, residential burglary and robbery in the first quarter compared with a year earlier — and said the Met, “backed with record funding from City Hall, is putting high‑visibility policing at the heart of fighting crime.” The post prompted immediate pushback from campaigners and commentators who argued the mayor had “buried” less favourable statistics. According to the original report, the exchange began when Rory Geoghegan of the Public Safety Foundation shared a thread drawing attention to figures omitted from the mayoral post. (Source: Express/Mayor’s X post.)

Mr Geoghegan’s intervention, shared on X, reproduced figures discussed at a recent London Assembly committee meeting and warned that some offences had risen over the year to June 2025 — notably gun crime by around 18%, rape by roughly 9% and shoplifting by about 38% — and said these numbers were “buried in a 100‑page PDF”. His critique reflects a longer‑running debate about which timeframes and categories politicians should use when highlighting crime trends, and whether emphasising percentage falls obscures the fact that rates in some categories remain high. The Public Safety Foundation has also warned more widely that constrained central funding and a reliance on local precepts make policing settlements fragile. (Source: Express; Public Safety Foundation.)

Those contested Metropolitan Police figures sit alongside national data that show a mixed picture. The Office for National Statistics bulletin for the year ending March 2025 records a small fall in homicides, a one per cent decrease in offences involving knives or sharp instruments and a 21 per cent fall in firearms offences, yet it also documents a substantial rise in police‑recorded shoplifting — running into the hundreds of thousands of offences — and an increase in theft from the person. The ONS cautions that police recording practices and the choice of measurement window affect the headline stories that can be told about crime. (Source: ONS.)

City Hall has defended its approach by pointing to the Mayor’s proposed budget for 2025–26, in which the Mayor’s office set out plans to provide a record £1.159 billion of Mayoral funding for policing. The City Hall press release described that settlement as protecting neighbourhood policing, saving hundreds of officer posts from cuts and supporting specialist teams, and reiterated the mayor’s commitment to high‑visibility neighbourhood policing. That release also highlighted longer‑term falls since 2016 in some serious offences, language that critics say risks conflating longer trends with the most recent year‑on‑year movements. (Source: City Hall press release.)

But policing leaders have emphasised the fragility of those improvements if funding is not sustained. In April the Metropolitan Police Commissioner warned that knife crime, violence against women and theft were all at risk of rising again without continued investment, citing recruitment pressures and the likelihood of reduced officer numbers if funding is not secured. Those warnings underline the point that short‑term improvements can be reversed quickly if capacity is stretched. (Source: BBC reporting on the Met Commissioner’s briefing.)

Beyond budgets and headlines, practitioners and researchers are testing practical responses to persistent street theft, which has become emblematic of the problem of high‑volume low‑value offending in central London. A pilot scheme on Oxford Street, led by the Institute for Crime & Policy Research in partnership with retailers and community organisations, has introduced purple pavement lines and signage under the “Mind the Grab” banner to encourage pedestrians to step back from the kerb and conceal phones. The Institute says it will rigorously evaluate the initiative; the retail partner has cited Freedom of Information data indicating tens of thousands of mobile phone thefts in Westminster in 2024 and has argued that visible prevention measures and customer support at stores can reduce harm. The pilot is supported by Westminster Council, the Metropolitan Police and Crimestoppers and will be monitored to establish whether the tactic changes behaviour and reduces offences. (Sources: ICPR; Independent reporting on the pilot.)

The row over the mayor’s social media post is therefore not simply about numbers but about narrative and policy: which statistics are picked out, how they are framed, and what that framing implies about the causes of — and solutions to — crime. City Hall promotes the view that targeted funding and visible local policing deliver results; policing and public‑safety organisations warn that those gains are precarious without sustained national settlements and that prevention measures need careful evaluation. For Londoners and policymakers alike, the necessary response is twofold: insist on transparent, comparable presentation of crime data and secure the long‑term investment needed to turn short‑term gains into lasting reductions. (Sources: Express; City Hall; ONS; BBC; Public Safety Foundation; ICPR.)

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Source: Noah Wire Services

Noah Fact Check Pro

The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.

Freshness check

Score:
7

Notes:
The narrative presents recent events, including Sadiq Khan’s social media post on crime statistics and subsequent critiques. The earliest known publication date of similar content is from April 2024, when Rishi Sunak criticised Khan’s record on knife crime. ([bbc.com](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cprg4jnl99lo?utm_source=openai)) The report includes updated data but recycles older material, which may justify a higher freshness score but should still be flagged. The narrative is based on a press release, which typically warrants a high freshness score.

Quotes check

Score:
8

Notes:
The narrative includes direct quotes from Rory Geoghegan of the Public Safety Foundation and other sources. The earliest known usage of these quotes is from June 2025. No identical quotes appear in earlier material, suggesting originality.

Source reliability

Score:
6

Notes:
The narrative originates from the Express, a reputable organisation. However, it also references sources like the Public Safety Foundation, which is less well-known and may lack verifiability. The City Hall press release is a primary source, which typically warrants a high reliability score.

Plausability check

Score:
7

Notes:
The narrative presents plausible claims about crime data discrepancies and political responses. However, the Express has previously published similar reports, such as one in 2019 claiming a surge in violent crime under Sadiq Khan. ([express.co.uk](https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1133692/london-crime-latest-sadiq-khan-london-mayor-police-knife-crime-robbery-statistics?utm_source=openai)) This raises questions about the originality of the content. The tone and language are consistent with typical media reporting on such topics.

Overall assessment

Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): OPEN

Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM

Summary:
The narrative presents recent events and includes original quotes, suggesting a degree of originality. However, the Express has previously published similar reports, raising questions about the originality of the content. The inclusion of a press release and references to less well-known sources may affect the overall reliability. Given these factors, the overall assessment is OPEN with medium confidence.