New research highlights a significant acceleration in cellular IoT adoption, driven by the mid-tier 5G RedCap technology and the dominant Asia & Oceania region. Forecasts predict over 5 billion connections by 2030, reshaping global IoT connectivity with strong sectoral demand and technological transitions.
The cellular Internet of Things (IoT) market is poised for substantial growth over the coming decade, with connections forecast to reach 5.1 billion by 2030 according to new research from Omdia. This rapid expansion is driven largely by the transformative impact of 5G technologies, which are reshaping the cellular IoT landscape. Three key technologies—5G RedCap, 5G Massive IoT, and 4G LTE Cat-1bis modules—have emerged as primary engines of this growth.
Among these, 5G RedCap is poised to play a pivotal role as the mid-tier connectivity solution. It targets 5G devices that do not need the highest performance specifications such as Ultra-Reliable Low Latency Communications (uRLLC) or Enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB), making it a practical and futureproof choice, especially as 4G networks gradually phase out beyond 2030. However, its adoption has been slower than anticipated, partly due to earlier delays in 5G standalone network rollouts. As Alexander Thompson, Senior Analyst for IoT at Omdia, explains, “We are beginning to see 5G SA rollouts accelerate again after a brief period of slowdowns, which has delayed 5G RedCap mass adoption by a couple of years.” Early 5G RedCap devices have started appearing in the U.S. market, marking the transition of mid-tier connectivity from 4G to 5G.
The Asia & Oceania region is leading the global surge in cellular IoT connectivity, accounting for over 67% of worldwide IoT module shipments and approximately 80% of total IoT connections in 2024. This dominance is underpinned by strong growth in sectors like automotive, where consumer demand for intelligent vehicles with integrated 5G connectivity fuels expansion. Andrew Brown, Practice Lead for IoT at Omdia, underscores the significance of this trend: “The dominance of the Asia & Oceania region in the IoT market cannot be overstated. We’re witnessing a significant shift in global technology leadership that will shape IoT innovation and deployment strategies for years to come.”
While Omdia’s projection of 5.1 billion connections by 2030 provides a solid benchmark, other research offers a broader range of forecasts, reflecting the sector’s dynamic nature. Counterpoint Research projects even more rapid growth, estimating over 6.2 billion cellular IoT connections globally by 2030, driven by a 10% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Their analysis highlights the automotive industry alongside smart meters and smart retail as major application areas that will collectively represent more than 60% of the market’s share by 2030. They also anticipate 5G connections will surpass Narrowband-IoT (NB-IoT) connections, accounting for nearly half of total IoT connectivity revenues worldwide.
Ericsson’s Mobility Report similarly forecasts a robust outlook, predicting over 7 billion cellular IoT connections by the end of 2030 with an annual growth rate of around 11% from 2024 onwards. Ericsson emphasises the role of Massive IoT technologies such as NB-IoT and Cat-M, which are well-suited for large-scale deployments of low-cost, low-power devices in wide-area applications. Their data also show commercial launches of 5G RedCap in multiple markets, with numerous service providers conducting trials, signalling rising confidence in this mid-tier technology.
Market value projections align with these connection forecasts, indicating strong financial growth. Grand View Research estimates the global cellular IoT market, valued at $6.12 billion in 2023, will expand to $31.69 billion by 2030, propelled by increasing demand for secure, efficient connectivity across diverse sectors like healthcare, agriculture, and utilities. The integration of IoT devices into manufacturing is paving the way for smart factories, where autonomous, interconnected equipment drives operational efficiency and cost reductions.
Financial metrics also reveal a shift towards connectivity revenue growth despite some declines in module shipments and revenue. According to IoT Analytics, the global cellular IoT connectivity market reached $15 billion in 2023, accompanied by a 23% year-over-year increase in mobile operators’ IoT revenue. This indicates that while hardware sales may fluctuate, operators are successfully monetising expanded IoT connectivity through improved service offerings, particularly harnessing 5G and 5G RedCap technologies.
The upcoming phase-out of older cellular networks like 2G and 3G is accelerating adoption of newer cellular IoT standards. Transforma Insights forecasts that by 2030, the installed base of cellular IoT devices will reach around 5 billion, with 5G massive Machine Type Communications (mMTC)—encompassing NB-IoT and LTE-M—alongside 4G dominating connection numbers. These trends reflect a broadening industry shift as enterprises in utilities, automotive, industrial, retail, and healthcare increasingly embrace cellular IoT to drive digital transformation, improve operational outcomes, and reduce costs.
In summary, the cellular IoT market stands on the brink of transformative growth powered by advanced 5G technologies, led by key regional players in Asia & Oceania, and supported by diverse sectoral demand. While forecasts vary slightly in magnitude, all point to a future where billions of connected devices and rapidly evolving mid-tier technologies like 5G RedCap will underpin a connected ecosystem integral to modern industry and daily life.
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Source: Noah Wire Services
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
8
Notes:
The narrative is based on a press release from Omdia dated July 16, 2025, indicating high freshness. However, similar forecasts from Omdia were published in January 2024, projecting 5.4 billion connections by 2030. ([omdia.tech.informa.com](https://omdia.tech.informa.com/pr/2024/jan/new-omdia-research-shows-cellular-iot-connections-will-reach-5-4bn-in-2030?utm_source=openai)) This suggests that the current report may be a republished or updated version of earlier content. Additionally, the report has been disseminated across multiple platforms, including EMSNow and FinancialContent, which may indicate widespread republishing. ([markets.financialcontent.com](https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/bizwire-2025-7-16-omdia-forecasts-cellular-iot-connections-to-reach-51-billion-by-2030?utm_source=openai)) The presence of updated data alongside older material may justify a higher freshness score but should still be flagged.
Quotes check
Score:
9
Notes:
The quotes from Alexander Thompson and Andrew Brown are consistent across multiple sources, indicating they are directly sourced from the Omdia press release. No significant variations in wording were found, suggesting the quotes are reused.
Source reliability
Score:
10
Notes:
The narrative originates from Omdia, a reputable organisation known for its market research and analysis. The press release is accessible on Omdia’s official website, confirming its authenticity. ([omdia.tech.informa.com](https://omdia.tech.informa.com/pr/2025/jul/omdia-forecasts-cellular-iot-connections-to-reach-5point1-billion-by-2030?utm_source=openai))
Plausability check
Score:
9
Notes:
The projections of 5.1 billion cellular IoT connections by 2030 are plausible and align with other industry forecasts. For instance, Ericsson’s Mobility Report forecasts over 7 billion cellular IoT connections by the end of 2030. ([ericsson.com](https://www.ericsson.com/en/reports-and-papers/mobility-report/dataforecasts/iot-connections-outlook?utm_source=openai)) The emphasis on 5G technologies, particularly 5G RedCap, as growth drivers is consistent with current industry trends. The focus on the Asia & Oceania region’s dominance in IoT growth is also supported by other reports, such as Counterpoint Research’s projection of over 6.2 billion cellular IoT connections globally by 2030. ([counterpointresearch.com](https://www.counterpointresearch.com/insights/global-cellular-iot-connectivity-revenue-2023-vs-2030/?utm_source=openai)) The narrative’s language and tone are consistent with industry reports, and the inclusion of specific data points and forecasts adds credibility.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): OPEN
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM
Summary:
The narrative is based on a recent Omdia press release dated July 16, 2025, indicating high freshness. However, similar forecasts from Omdia were published in January 2024, suggesting the current report may be a republished or updated version of earlier content. The quotes are consistent across multiple sources, indicating they are directly sourced from the Omdia press release. The narrative originates from Omdia, a reputable organisation, and the projections align with other industry forecasts, adding credibility. The focus on the Asia & Oceania region’s dominance in IoT growth is supported by other reports. Given the potential for recycled content and the presence of similar forecasts from earlier in the year, the overall assessment is OPEN with a MEDIUM confidence level.
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